Yearly Archive 2024年11月18日

In the shadow of Levi’s Stadium on Sunday, with the game tied and with no time left on the clock, the football gods finally, finally, finally allowed 49ers kicker Jake Moody to have his moment.

After missing both of his two previous field goal attempts in the fourth quarter, Moody came through. He nailed a 44-yard field goal as time expired to give San Francisco a 23-20 over the Buccaneers, potentially saving the 49ers’ season.

Afterward, the mood in the San Francisco locker room leaned more toward relief than joy as star offensive lineman Trent Williams broke down the team huddle.

“This is just the beginning, man,” Williams told his teammates. “That’s the way to fight, but we’ve got a lot more fighting to go.”

Indeed, just nine months removed from being one fourth down stop away from winning the Super Bowl, the 49ers are fighting for their playoff lives. San Francisco (5-4) sits in second place in the NFC West, a half-game behind the division-leading Cardinals (6-4).

The battle for the division title is shaping up to be the last unknown in the NFC playoff picture. Though eight weeks still remain in the regular season, six teams already have strangleholds on a postseason spot. According to the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, six teams in the NFC already have at least an 74% chance of reaching the playoffs: the Lions (99.9%), Commanders (98.6%), Eagles (95.9%), Falcons (88.7%), Vikings (83.9%) and Packers (74.9%).

The only question, according to the model, is which team wins the NFC West. Though the Cardinals lead the division, the model says San Francisco has a better chance to make the playoffs than Arizona, 58.5% to 52.7%.

Stephen Oh, SportsLine’s principal data engineer and the man behind the model, says that the NFC could have multiple pretenders make the playoffs.

“Arizona is only +18 in point differential (seventh best in NFC), and Atlanta is just +2,” he says. “Unlike in the AFC where every team is at a model top 12 team or better, the NFC could have multiple non-true contenders make the playoffs. Not only Arizona and Atlanta but also Minnesota if Sam Darnold keeps throwing multiple interceptions.”

As for the 49ers’ Week 11 game against the Seahawks, the SportsLine Projection Model has an A-grade spread pick, saying one team covers in well over 50% of simulations. The game is one of four with A-grade spread picks based on model simulations for Week 11. You can find those top-tier Week 11 NFL picks at SportsLine.

New England Patriots defensive lineman Christian Barmore, who has been out since being hospitalized with blood clots during the summer, practiced on Thursday for the first time since his diagnosis.

Barmore has been on the team’s non-football illness list since the time of his hospitalization. New England signed veteran Mike Purcell shortly thereafter as a possible replacement, but he was released less than three weeks later.

“Our principal concern at this time is Christian’s health and well-being,” the team said in a statement at the time of Barmore’s hospitalization. “Fortunately, Mass General Brigham provides some of the best healthcare in the world. While there is no current timetable for his return, we know Christian is getting tremendous care, and we look forward to his full recovery.”

Patriots DT Christian Barmore has returned to practice @RapSheet report officially confirmed! pic.twitter.com/Epdw0KdLt0

— Sophie Weller (@sophieewellerr) November 14, 2024
The hospitalization occurred almost three months to the day after Barmore signed a four-year, $84 million contract extension with the Patriots. The deal, which averages $21 million per year and has made Barmore one of the NFL’s 10 highest-paid interior defenders, signaled New England’s plans to continue featuring the lineman as a core piece of new coach Jerod Mayo’s unit.

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Christian Barmore
NE • DT • #90
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Originally a second-round draft pick out of Alabama in 2021, Barmore has appeared in 44 games for the Patriots to date, starting 11 contests. He logged a career-high 8.5 sacks in 2023, when he also set personal-best marks in tackles (64), quarterback hits (16) and tackles for loss (13).

Barmore’s return to the practice field is yet another recent positive for the Patriots, who have won two of their last three games after a 1-6 start to the season. New England will play host to the 4-5 Los Angeles Rams this Sunday.

Deommodore Lenoir is staying in San Francisco for the long haul. The veteran cornerback has signed a five-year extension worth a reported $92 million contract with the 49ers, according to NFL Media. The team announced the deal on Thursday.

A 2021 fifth-round pick, Lenoir was in the final year of his rookie contract. He broke into the starting lineup in 2022 and has been a mainstay in the 49ers’ secondary ever since. Last year, Lenoir set career highs with three interceptions, 10 passes defensed and 84 tackles in 17 games. Through nine games this year, Lenoir has recorded his first career forced fumble in addition to two picks, six passes defended and 53 tackles.

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Deommodore Lenoir
SF • CB • #2
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Instead of hitting the open market next offseason, Lenoir will remain in San Francisco for the foreseeable future, much to the delight of 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan.

“Yeah, DMo’s been a stud,” Shanahan recently said of his young defensive back. “He is exactly what you want a 49er to play like. He came in his first rookie camp and stood out, got me fined for illegally jamming people too hard and putting it on the internet. So, I always mess with him for that.”

After concluding their final season as members of the AFL in 1969 with a 23-7 triumph over the Minnesota Vikings to win Super Bowl IV, the Kansas City Chiefs struggled to achieve similar success in the NFL for decades. They reached the AFC Championship Game just once in the first 48 years following the merger, but the emergence of Patrick Mahomes in 2018 drastically changed the team’s fortunes.

In Mahomes’ first season as its starting quarterback, Kansas City held a late lead against the New England Patriots in the conference title game but squandered it and lost 37-31 in overtime. The club has played in the AFC Championship Game every year since, winning four of its last five appearances and going to capture the Vince Lombardi Trophy three times.

The Chiefs edged the San Francisco 49ers 25-22 in overtime last February to become the ninth team to win back-to-back Super Bowls. They now are looking to accomplish a feat last achieved by the Green Bay Packers from 1929-31: win three consecutive NFL titles.

Before they are able to reach that level of dominance, another rare feat is in their sights. Kansas City enters its Week 11 matchup against the Buffalo Bills with a 9-0 record and are aiming to join the 1972 Miami Dolphins (14-0) and 2007 New England Patriots (16-0) as the only teams in the Super Bowl era to go undefeated during the regular season.

Miami went on to win its three playoff games in 1972, but after winning its first two postseason contests, New England suffered a 17-14 loss to the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII, preventing it from achieving total perfection. The Chicago Bears went 13-0 in 1934 and 11-0 in 1942 but lost in the NFL Championship Game both years.

The Chiefs are the 34th team in league history and 22nd since the merger to win its first nine games. This is the third time the franchise has begun a season with a 9-0, as it also did so in both 2003 and 2013 – the latter being Andy Reid’s first campaign as its head coach.

Those two streaks both ended on the road, with Kansas City losing at Cincinnati in 2003 and Denver in 2013. That does not bode well for its chances of improving to 10-0 when it visits Buffalo on Sunday.

Since Week 17 of the 2023 season and including the playoffs, the Chiefs have posted a franchise-record 15 consecutive victories. While that is an amazing accomplishment, 12 of those wins were by eight points or fewer – including seven of their nine triumphs this campaign.

Kansas City has a plus-58 point differential in 2024, which is the worst mark for a 9-0 team in NFL history. According to the SportsLine Projection Model, it is the equivalent for a team with three losses at this point.

This is one of the reasons the model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, currently gives the Chiefs a 2% chance to go undefeated this season. That percentage increases with every additional victory Kansas City records, as a win in Buffalo raises it to 5.4%.

Should the Chiefs then defeat their following four opponents (Carolina Panthers, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Cleveland Browns), the model’s simulations say they’ll go undefeated 19.9% of the time. A triumph over the Houston Texans in Week 16 has the outlook for a perfect regular season at 28.8%, and if the club pulls out a road victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers the following week, it will enter the finale at Denver with a 60% chance to finish with a 17-0 record.

More importantly for Kansas City is earning the No. 1 seed in the conference. Sure, the club proved it was able to win on the road in the playoffs last year by recording victories in Buffalo and Baltimore, but being able to host postseason games is what teams strive to do.

Sunday’s showdown between the Chiefs and Bills will go a long way toward determining who will have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Buffalo enters with an 8-2 record and would pull within one-half game of the Chiefs in the AFC standings with a win.

The model says Kansas City currently has a 65.4% chance of being the top seed in the conference, and it would increase to 91.6% with a triumph over the Bills. A loss would put the Chiefs’ prospects at 52.5%, but Buffalo’s only would improve from 25.2% currently to 37.1% with a victory on Sunday.

A loss by the Bills would see their chances plummet to 2.1%. Including their meeting in the divisional round last postseason, the Chiefs have won their last four trips to Buffalo, which also gives them confidence as they look to become the 19th team to get off to a 10-0 start in the Super Bowl era.

The model is calling for a close contest between the Chiefs and Bills on Sunday. And it is one of the five games with A-grade picks based on model simulations for the 11th week of the season. You can find those top-tier Week 11 NFL picks at SportsLine.

The Buffalo Bills have had to play the last two weeks without their marquee trade-deadline acquisition. Wide receiver Amari Cooper has been dealing with a wrist injury and he missed the Bills’ victories over the Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts. Buffalo was able to weather his absence and score 30 points in both games, but it could certainly use him back in the mix this coming Sunday against the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.

Lucky for them, then, that Cooper feels like he can get back on the field for that game.

“Definitely feeling better. Definitely more comfortable,” Cooper said, via the Batavia Daily News. “So, just ready to play football again.”

Cooper has been listed as limited in practices this week, and has been wearing a cast on his wrist that he would play with on Sunday, provided that he can give it a go. He spoke about how it felt to wear that cast while practicing.

“It felt good,” Cooper said. “Like I said, I don’t really feel pain or anything catching the ball. I’ve just got to get used to it — catching the ball with it.”

Cooper played just two games in Buffalo prior to his injury, catching five passes for 69 yards and a touchdown while playing limited snaps. With rookie wideout Keon Coleman still out with an injury of his own and tight end Dalton Kincaid missing Wednesday’s practice, the Bills could be forced to thrust Cooper into a significantly larger role than the one he had before he went down. Against a stingy Kansas City secondary, he’d have his work cut out for him either way.

Week 11 marks a historic moment for the NFL, especially among contending teams: For the first time ever, a regular-season slate will include three different games in which every team enters with at least seven wins. All three matchups — Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills — profile as potential playoff previews.

Which of the six mightiest clubs squaring off in Week 11 is best-positioned to go the distance? Here, we’re ranking all of them by projected win totals and Super Bowl chances, plus offering the biggest reasons to believe — or doubt — their shot at lifting the ultimate trophy.

Note: Projected win totals are courtesy of SportsLine, then rounded up or down to an even record. Super Bowl chances are also courtesy of SportsLine simulations.

1. Kansas City Chiefs
   Record: 9-0 | Projected Wins: 14 | Super Bowl: 17.8%

Reason to be skeptical: They’re winning almost exclusively on the margins. Which is a testament to their clutch composure, but still makes sustained success rather difficult. We’ve now gone basically two years since Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce were consistently explosive rather than scrappy.
Reason to believe: It’s the Chiefs. While Mahomes and Co. may not be blowing teams out, they almost never fold when it matters most. It’s why no one is even remotely surprised they’re in the running for a three-peat. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense also remains tenacious.

2. Buffalo Bills
   Record: 8-2 | Projected Wins: 13 | Super Bowl: 16.4%

Reason to be skeptical: Josh Allen can play superhero, but for how long? While the Bills have actually enjoyed a fair amount of complementary football this year, they’re now nursing injuries across their remade skill group, including to newcomers Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman.
Reason to believe: For all the hubbub about Allen losing his top two pass targets during the offseason, the offense has been humming at a reasonable rate. Sean McDermott’s defense also registers as a top-10 scoring unit. The talent does, in fact, appear to be present for a deep run.

3. Baltimore Ravens
   Record: 7-3 | Projected Wins: 12 | Super Bowl: 13.7%

Reason to be skeptical: Forget Lamar Jackson’s underwhelming track record in the playoffs. His defensive support has been almost completely lacking this year sans coordinator Mike Macdonald. Only five teams are giving up more yards, and only seven are surrendering more points.
Reason to believe: Lamar Jackson. Playoff record aside, the reigning MVP is well on track to repeat as the NFL’s top-awarded playmaker, combining his signature rushing electricity with career-best aerial accuracy. Throw in the bruising Derrick Henry, and their offense is a machine.

4. Washington Commanders
   Record: 7-3 | Projected Wins: 12 | Super Bowl: 6.5%

Reason to be skeptical: Even with rookie Jayden Daniels’ sterling debut, the Commanders have been fairly one-dimensional out wide, with Terry McLaurin serving as the only steady threat on the perimeter. Daniels has also yet to see the playoff stage, and Washington’s schedule has been quite favorable.
Reason to believe: It’s hard to overstate Daniels’ magic, when he’s on his game. His dual-threat smoothness has instilled a confidence in this club not seen for years. Dan Quinn’s defense has also turned a corner, registering as borderline top 10 even with star acquisition Marshon Lattimore injured.

5. Philadelphia Eagles
   Record: 7-2 | Projected Wins: 12 | Super Bowl: 4.2%

Reason to be skeptical: Their five-game win streak has come mostly at the expense of battered, inferior opponents, allowing a once-derided pass rush to feast on replacement-level quarterbacks. Coach Nick Sirianni and quarterback Jalen Hurts have also shown some ill-timed decision-making.
Reason to believe: Hurts and Sirianni have seemingly put the ugly offense of late 2023 and early 2024 behind them, feeding Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith to the tune of four straight 28-point showings. That talent is nearly unmatched. And Vic Fangio’s defense has a legit physical edge.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers
   Record: 7-2 | Projected Wins: 11 | Super Bowl: 3.6%

Reason to be skeptical: We’re only three games into Russell Wilson’s ride as the new QB1, and while he’s opened up the passing game, his downfield success has largely stemmed from a “chuck-it-and-pray” approach. His skill group, meanwhile, has proven to be quite boom-or-bust in the past.
Reason to believe: Maligned as he may have been after an ugly Denver Broncos tenure, Wilson seems to have rediscovered his old play-action form, giving the Steelers a big-play punch they’ve lacked for years. Mike Tomlin’s defense also remains feisty as ever, especially up front.